Is the Nickel Market Broken?

What’s nickel worth?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken many markets, perhaps none as severely as trading in nickel. The chaos is causing supply problems for carmakers and others that need the metal — and raising fundamental questions about how commodity markets work.

The global nickel market is basically frozen, The Times’s Jack Ewing and DealBook’s Stephen Gandel report. After a surge in prices last week, trading was suspended for several days, and has struggled to function under new restrictions. Today, for the third time in three days, a plunge in price at the open of trading almost immediately triggered the exchange’s daily limit, below which no further trades are allowed. “The market is broken,” said Keith Wildie, the head of trading at Romco, a metals firm based in London.

Nickel users are trying to shield themselves from future shocks. Volkswagen, for example, is considering buying directly from mining companies. Nickel is a key component in batteries for electric vehicles, and volatile prices could slow the transition away from fossil fuels.

A quick recap: Early last week, nickel’s price more than doubled in a matter of minutes. A large producer, Tsingshan of China, had bet that nickel’s price would drop — a wager that went awry when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatened to disrupt already tight supplies. The rapid rise in price threatened Tsingshan and others with huge margin calls, prompting the London Metal Exchange to halt trading and cancel trades made at the highest prices during the frenzy. Since then, attempts to restart trading and allow the market to settle on a price for nickel have faltered. Analysts expect nickel prices to drop, eventually, but to remain significantly higher than they were a year ago.

Have traders lost faith in the LME? Some hedge funds criticized the exchange’s canceling trades to help metal producers at the expense of financial traders that provide liquidity to the market. “Certainly you have to be quite hesitant about trading on an exchange that has that value system,” Jordan Brooks of the investment firm AQR told DealBook. “Commodity producers are looking to hedge, and someone needs to be on the other side of that trade.” For its part, the LME said that the nickel market is meant to serve end users of the metal, meaning it had to step in when prices got out of whack.

HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

Amazon’s takeover of MGM is official. The e-commerce giant closed its $8.5 billion deal for the studio, home of James Bond, yesterday after a deadline for an F.T.C. review expired. The move exposed a weakness in the F.T.C., which has sought to challenge more deals: A vacancy among its commissioners has left the regulator’s decision-making deadlocked along partisan lines.

A rise in Omicron cases in Europe may be a warning for the U.S. Experts are watching the rapid spread of a new subvariant across the continent; previous waves in Europe preceded ones in the U.S. Meanwhile, Jeff Zients will step down as the White House’s Covid czar, and will be replaced by Dr. Ashish Jha of Brown University; and Moderna applied for F.D.A. authorization of a second booster shot for all adults.

U.S. mortgage rates surpass 4 percent. Amid a general rise in inflation, it’s the first time in nearly three years that home loans have climbed this high. That may dent the red-hot housing market: Applications for new mortgage applications barely grew this week.

A major U.S.-owned utility spends big on natural gas. The Tennessee Valley Authority plans to invest $3.5 billion in new gas-fired power plants to replace aging coal ones, despite President Biden’s pledge to swiftly reduce America’s dependence on fossil fuels.

Geopolitics dampen the mood at a dealmakers’ convention. M.&A. bankers and lawyers gathered in person at Tulane’s Corporate Law Institute for the first time in two years to talk deals (and indulge in creole cuisine). But the war in Ukraine, whipsawing oil prices and tougher antitrust review pose significant challenges, attendees said.

Cutting off Russia from crypto

Foreign crypto exchanges that do business with Russians who are under sanctions would themselves be sanctioned under a new bill sponsored by 10 Democratic senators, led by Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. But while punishing Russia for the invasion of Ukraine has bipartisan support, the bill’s implications for the crypto industry do not.

Senate Republicans made their case against the bill at a committee hearing yesterday on the use of digital assets in illicit finance. They relied on the testimony of Michael Chobanian, the founder of the crypto exchange Kuna, who has worked closely with the Ukrainian government on fund-raising for the war (more on that below). He argued that restrictions on crypto could help Vladimir Putin by hurting those who oppose him inside Russia.

It’s “not exactly true” that Russia can use crypto to avoid all sanctions, Chobanian said, adding that it’s “impossible” to convert large amounts of cash into crypto. Plus, sanctions and seizures have left Russian oligarchs “stuck in Russia” with crypto they can’t spend, Chobanian said: “I mean, they’re sitting in a city where you can’t even go to McDonald’s.” Still, Warren noted, “crypto looks like a pretty good option” for Putin and Russian oligarchs looking to skirt sanctions — as it has for others in Venezuela, Iran and North Korea.

Many Russians rely on crypto for other reasons, Chobanian said. “These people are basically the opposition to the Putin regime,” he said. He told senators to “think of crypto as energy” that can be used for good or ill. Senator Patrick Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, said that “secondary sanctions” like those in Warren’s bill could end up hurting more than helping, noting Chobanian’s testimony about a “correlation between those Russian people who use crypto and those who are opposed to what Putin is doing.”

The latest on the Russia-Ukraine war:

• JPMorgan Chase processed a $117 million bond payment by Russia, so the country appears to have avoided default.

• Koch Industries defied pressure to pull out of Russia, while the Austrian bank Raiffeisen said it was reconsidering its decision to stay in the country.

• BNY Mellon said that sanctions would cost it $200 million this year. Meanwhile, a yacht reportedly belonging to a Russian oligarch facing sanctions can’t sail out of Norway — because no one will sell it fuel.

• For up-to-the-minute news, see The Times’s live blog and updated maps.

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“Rising gas prices make a tough situation even tougher, and for a lot of drivers it’s sort of the final straw that pushes them over the edge.”

— Harry Campbell, who writes a blog called The Rideshare Guy, on how gig workers who drive for ride-hailing and delivery services are finding it hard to justify spending hours on the road as fuel prices tick upward.

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The Russia-Ukraine War and the Global Economy

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Rising concerns. Russia’s invasion on Ukraine has had a ripple effect across the globe, adding to the stock market’s woes and spooking investors. The conflict has already caused​​ dizzying spikes in energy prices, and could severely affect various countries and industries.

The cost of energy. Oil prices already were the highest since 2014, and they have continued to rise since the invasion.  Russia is the third-largest producer of oil, so more price increases are inevitable.

Gas supplies. Europe gets nearly 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia, and it is likely to be walloped with higher heating bills. Natural gas reserves are running low, and European leaders worry that Moscow could cut flows in response to the region’s support of Ukraine.

Food prices. Russia is the world’s largest supplier of wheat; together, it and Ukraine account for nearly a quarter of total global exports. Countries like Egypt, which relies heavily on Russian wheat imports, are already looking for alternative suppliers.

Shortages of essential metals. The price of palladium, used in automotive exhaust systems and mobile phones, has been soaring amid fears that Russia, the world’s largest exporter of the metal, could be cut off from global markets. The price of nickel, another key Russian export, has also been rising.

Financial turmoil. Global banks are bracing for the effects of sanctions intended to restrict Russia’s access to foreign capital and limit its ability to process payments in dollars, euros and other currencies crucial for trade. Banks are also on alert for retaliatory cyberattacks by Russia.

In the papers

Some of the academic research that caught our eye this week, summarized in one sentence:

• Many companies with substantial ties to Russia have high E.S.G. ratings. (Elizabeth Demers, Jurian Hendrikse, Philip Joos and Baruch Lev)

• Increasing the speed of electric-vehicle charging stations is a bigger benefit to drivers than building more of them. (Jackson Dorsey, Ashley Langer and Shaun McRae)

• Stock market volatility tends to go down during times of war, because of increased government spending. (Gustavo Cortes, Angela Vossmeyer and Marc Weidenmier)

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Crypto fundraising in Ukraine

Last month, before Russian troops invaded, lawmakers in Ukraine approved a bill bolstering the development of cryptocurrency in the country. This week, with the country at war, it was signed into law.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation has put crypto at the heart of its defense and relief fund-raising efforts. DealBook asked the department’s deputy minister, Oleksandr Bornyakov, about these efforts. The exchange has been edited and condensed.

How much crypto have you raised?

Due to the volatility of crypto, the total amount of collected funds can change according to the current exchange rate. As of March 15, the Crypto Fund of Ukraine raised close to $52 million in crypto assets, including a CryptoPunk NFT, Bitcoin, Ether, Dogecoin, Polkadot, Solana, Monero and Tether. We are shooting for a $200 million goal.

What have these donations bought?

We do not reveal a complete list for security purposes, but crypto assets proved extremely helpful in facilitation of funding flows to the armed forces and have been used for helmets, bulletproof vests, medicine, walkie-talkies, rations, thermal imagers, optics equipment and also humanitarian aid. We plan to use collected funds for informational campaigns countering Russian propaganda, cybersecurity and more.

Can you explain the new UkrainianPool project?

Participants do not need to directly donate assets to raise money. Instead, they ‘stake’ their funds temporarily, which generates high-interest yields that are transferred to a wallet owned by our ministry. The more funds are staked in the pool, the more funds can be raised for Ukrainians in need. UkrainianPool is aiming for $10 million in funding for humanitarian efforts.

And how are you using NFTs?

The mission is to memorialize and to raise global awareness and funds. Each NFT will consist of one news piece from trusted sources and one piece of art by Ukrainian and international artists that is a sober documentation of events, supported by a personal emotional reflection. Books can be overwritten but a distributed ledger cannot. That’s why the NFT technology is perfect for the goal to preserve the truth about the war and collect donations simultaneously.

THE SPEED READ

Deals

• Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought another $1 billion worth of shares in Occidental Petroleum, giving it a 14.6 percent stake; the company’s stock rose nearly 10 percent on the news. (Reuters)

• The on-demand grocery app Getir raised $768 million at a nearly $12 billion valuation from investors like Mubadala, Sequoia and Tiger Global. (Tech.eu)

• The C.E.O. of Moderna, Stéphane Bancel, has sold over $400 million worth of the drug maker’s stock since the onset of the pandemic. (CNBC)

Policy

• The National Labor Relations Board sued Amazon, alleging “flagrant unfair labor practices” at a Staten Island warehouse ahead of a union election vote there. (NYT)

• Citigroup will pay the travel costs for Texas-based employees who seek abortions outside of the state, after the passage of new restrictions. (NYT)

• The Senate’s vote to approve permanently moving the U.S. to daylight saving time came as a surprise to … many senators. (BuzzFeed News)

Best of the rest

• G.E. cut the pay of its C.E.O., Larry Culp, after shareholders criticized a previous compensation package of his. (WSJ)

• The S.E.C. forced Wendy’s to let shareholders vote on a proposal requiring the fast-food chain to disclose its use of crates to house pregnant pigs. (Bloomberg)

• “Where State Farm Sees ‘a Lot of Fraud,’ Black Customers See Discrimination” (NYT)

• U.S. News ranked Columbia No. 2 in its annual university rankings — but a math professor there publicly challenged the rating. (NYT)

• “When Your Second Home Is the First One You Buy” (NYT)

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