The big surprises are one of the best parts of the start of each MLB season. Every year, the fans, media, players, field staff and front offices make predictions on where teams will finish, what players will lead the league in key categories and who will win the major awards. And every year, some of those predictions feel like such sure things.
Then without fail, there are disappointments and surprises. Last week I wrote about 10 early season disappointments, and this week I’m writing about the things that catch us off guard and seem to come out of nowhere.
Who would have guessed, about a quarter into the season, that the Tigers would have the best record in the American League, or that Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore would be leading the National League in strikeouts?
The unpredictability is part of what makes our game so great. Here are 10 of the biggest surprises of the 2025 season so far. In the comments section, please share others that stand out to you.
1. The Tigers setting the pace in the AL
During spring training, the Tigers, along with the Guardians, Royals and Twins, looked like they could be in the mix for the AL Central title. However, despite a strong finish to last season, I don’t think anyone thought Detroit would jump out to the American League’s best record (28-15) in the first quarter of the season.
The Tigers rank second in the AL in team ERA (3.20) behind the Royals, but they arguably have the best five-man rotation in the league with reigning Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize (currently on the injured list with a hamstring strain), Reese Olson and rookie Jackson Jobe. Their offense is second in the AL in runs scored, trailing only the Yankees, and it’s loaded with young power bats: First baseman Spencer Torkelson has blasted 11 homers, while outfielders Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene have hit nine apiece.
Two other key factors have been the contributions of veterans Gleyber Torres and Javier Báez. Torres, who signed a one-year, $15 million deal with Detroit in free agency, is hitting .299 with a .368 on-base percentage and five homers. And Báez has been the surprise of the season; he is an early Comeback Player of the Year candidate, hitting .319 and playing plus defense in his new position, center field. Without a doubt, the Tigers are for real.
2. The Mets’ rotation pitching this well
Entering this season, the Mets were expected to have a dynamic lineup, offensively and defensively. In the offseason, they’d invested $765 million in right fielder Juan Soto instead of putting some of that money toward the best free-agent starting pitchers like Max Fried and Corbin Burnes, among others. The Mets opted to take gambles on shorter-term deals with pitchers, signing reliever Clay Holmes to a three-year, $38 million pact and making him a starter, inking Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34 million deal (he’s currently on the 60-day injured list), and taking a shot on Griffin Canning, who had been non-tendered by the Braves. They made a bigger bet on starter Sean Manaea, re-signing the veteran lefty to a three-year, $75 million contract, but he got hurt in spring training and hasn’t made a start yet.
Many of us thought the Mets would go only as far as their starting pitching would take them, and before the season slotted them more as a wild-card team than a division winner. But, to my surprise, Mets starting pitchers have the best combined ERA in the majors (2.65), and they have helped New York take an early lead in the NL East race.
Last season, their rotation ranked 12th in ERA. This season, despite the injury adversity, their rotation is rolling. Kodai Senga is 4-2 with a 1.22 ERA, Holmes is 5-1 with a 2.74 ERA, Canning is 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA, David Peterson has a 3.05 ERA and Tylor Megill has a 3.10 ERA. That’ll work.
3. The Mariners’ rejuvenated offense
Mariners hitters led MLB in strikeouts last season and finished 21st out of 30 teams in runs scored. In the offseason, the club did little to improve its offense outside of signing utilityman Donovan Solano and bringing back infielder Jorge Polanco. And yet, so far, this has been a totally different offense with many of the same players.
The Mariners rank ninth in the majors in runs scored and 12th in OPS. Twenty teams have struck out more than them, a significant improvement over their whiff-filled 2024 season. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto credits most of the improvement to his change in field staff — led by manager Dan Wilson and hitting coach Edgar Martinez, who were put in place last August, as well as new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer. In addition to better coaching, it’s also helped that Polanco has stayed healthy and shortstop J.P. Crawford is getting on base at a career-high rate (.378 OBP).
4. Jacob Wilson’s hitting stats
Wilson is off to an incredible start, ranking second in the majors in hits (58) behind Aaron Judge. The Athletics rookie shortstop has batted .363/.389/.513 with nine doubles and five homers, but what’s perhaps even more amazing is that he’s struck out just nine times and walked only seven times in 168 plate appearances. Can I take my jaw off the floor?
Last season between the majors and minors, Wilson struck out 25 times and walked 22 times in 329 plate appearances, so he’s shown these tendencies before, but he’s producing much more at the big-league level, from an 85 OPS+ last season to a 151 OPS+ this season. Let’s see if he can keep it up.
Wilson currently ranks in the 99th percentile in squared-up percentage, the top percentile in K%, the 97th percentile in xBA, but also in the 9th percentile in walk rate, the bottom percentile in bat speed and the 5th percentile in hard-hit rate. OK!
5. MacKenzie Gore leading all MLB pitchers in punchouts
Coming into the season, Skubal, Zack Wheeler and Chris Sale were the pitchers considered most likely to lead the league in strikeouts. All three currently rank among the top 10 strikeout leaders, but Gore tops the field with 75 punchouts. The Nationals lefty has posted a 3.59 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over nine starts and is averaging 12.82 strikeouts per nine innings, up from 9.79 per nine last season. Batters are hitting .216 against his curveball with a 51.1 percent whiff rate and .107 against his slider with a 47.4 percent whiff rate.
6. Cal Raleigh challenging Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber in power
Everyone expected Judge to lead the American League in homers and either Ohtani or Schwarber to lead the National League. However, Raleigh is right with those sluggers on the home run leaderboard to start the season. His power is no surprise as he’s hit more homers than any catcher in baseball over the past two years with 64, but he’s on pace to do even more damage this season.
The Mariners rewarded Raleigh in the offseason, signing the 28-year-old catcher to to a $105 million contract extension. Since signing the deal, he’s been one of the best home run hitters in the sport and is currently second in the majors, behind Judge, Schwarber and Corbin Carroll, with 13 homers.
7. San Francisco’s strong start
I think the Giants have been the biggest surprise team in baseball. Last season they went 80-82 and finished fourth in the NL West, 18 games behind the Dodgers. Over the offseason, they did little to improve the team outside of signing shortstop Willy Adames and right-hander Justin Verlander, who is pitching at 42. Both are off to slow starts: Adames is hitting .225 with a 94 OPS+ and Verlander is winless with a 4.31 ERA over nine starts. And yet, the Giants are 25-18, sitting in third place in the West but only two games out of second and 2.5 games out of first.
8. The Rafael Devers-Red Sox saga
I’ve been surprised by Devers’ reactions every time he’s been asked to change positions. When he signed a 10-year, $313.5 million deal with Boston in 2023, there was nothing in the contract that stipulated he would play third base or any other position.
In fairness to Devers, I understood when the Red Sox signed Alex Bregman at the start of spring training and he preferred not to switch from third base to DH. Boston did not handle the position change well due to a lack of communication and the delayed timing of its ask. I also get why the 28-year-old didn’t want to be a full-time DH at this point in his career.
I thought the right play at the time was to move Devers to first base, but the Red Sox wanted to give Triston Casas more runway there. However, when Casas suffered a season-ending knee injury and the Red Sox broached the idea of moving Devers to first base, I thought he’d be elated. He could not only go back onto the field every day, but also start developing into Boston’s long-term answer at first base, like the transition Bryce Harper made with the Phillies. (I understand there are differences between the situations with Devers and Harper, and a position change like this one in-season would be hard.)
In addition, any team player could see that the Red Sox don’t have a better option at first base — either in-house or on the trade market — and that opening up DH would secure a pathway for the game’s best prospect, Roman Anthony, to be promoted to the majors, which could significantly improve their chances of making the postseason.
I understand Devers’ frustration over having to change positions once, let alone twice. But he also should understand this will be better for him and the team in the short and long term.
9. Minor-league stadiums in MLB working out — for the most part
MLB received a lot of criticism about the decisions to have two teams playing in Triple-A ballparks this season with the Athletics moving their home games to Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, Calif., and the Tampa Bay Rays moving to George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Fla., after Hurricane Milton damaged Tropicana Field. However, it’s worked out pretty well for both teams, with what seems like renewed energy from their fan bases in the new parks.
Of course, it’s not perfect and there are plenty of opinions including some unfavorable ones, but for the most part these have not been the negative stories many expected. On the flip side for the Athletics and Rays, another surprise has been that both teams have been much better on the road than at home. The Athletics are 8-13 at home compared to 14-7 on the road, while the Rays are 11-17 and 8-5 on the road.
The summer months could change this narrative. As it warms up in Sacramento, that ballpark could become a launching pad. And in Tampa, the outdoor park could lead to several rain delays as that area is known for having summer showers. Whether those conditions help or hurt their home teams remains to be seen.
Overall, though, I think it’s fair to say these two less-than-ideal situations are exceeding expectations.
10. Andrés Muñoz not giving up an earned run thus far
Muñoz has been one of the best relievers in baseball since 2022, with ERAs under 3.00 every year in that span and 30 career saves entering this season. But, early on, it looks like he’s taken his game to another level. He has a 0.00 ERA in 19 appearances and an AL-best 13 saves. He ranks in the 97th percentile or higher in breaking run value, xERA, fastball velocity, whiff rate, K% and ground-ball percentage.
(Top photo of Javier Báez: David Reginek / Imagn Images)