The Gender Gap Is Now a Gender Gulf

Regardless of who wins the presidential election, the coalitions supporting Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Nov. 5, 2024, will be significantly different from those on Nov. 3, 2020.

On May 22, Split Ticket, a self-described “group of political and election enthusiasts” who created a “website for their mapping, modeling and political forecasting,” published “Cross Tabs at a Crossroads: Six Months Out.”

Split Ticket aggregated “subgroup data from the cross tabs of 12 reputable national 2024 general election polls” and compared them to 2020 election results compiled by Pew, Catalist and AP.

Combining data from multiple surveys allowed Split Ticket to analyze large sample sizes and reduce margins of error for key demographic groups.

The Split Ticket report identified the groups in which Trump and Biden are gaining or losing ground.

In Biden’s case, the analysis shows the president falling behind his 2000 margins among Black voters (down 23 percent from 2000); among urban voters (down 15 percent); among independents, including so-called partisan leaners (down 14); among Latinos (down 13); moderates (down 13); and voters aged 18—29 (down 12).